The EU faces two major tests in Ukraine and in Israel-Palestine. The fire of war has been burning on the eastern border of Europe for nearly two years now, much longer than Putin had thought. He believed that within weeks the Russian army would be in Kyiv and could install a puppet regime, like the one in Belarus. Thanks to Ukraine's resistance and to international support, that did not happen.

Europe lived up to its responsibilities

Europe has lived up to its responsibilities: the EU has massively supported Ukraine economically and militarily. We have trained more than 30 000 Ukrainian soldiers and our military support now totals €27 billion. We have put in place 11 sanctions packages and are preparing the 12th. It will include new import and export bans, actions to tighten the oil price cap and to fight sanctions circumvention.

“Putin's regime needs war because it is the instrument of its political survival. We must prepare for a long conflict which Russia cannot win, but whose end it can delay.”

However, we must be realistic: the prospect of Ukraine’s victory over Russia is not immediate. Putin's regime needs war because it is the instrument of its political survival. We must prepare for a long conflict which Russia cannot win, but whose end it can delay. With the prospect of a US election, which could, Putin hopes, put US support for Ukraine in jeopardy, he believes that democracies will finally falter. We have to prove him wrong and stay united to continue support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.

The greatest security guarantee we can give Ukraine is EU membership

The European Commission has recommended last week opening accession negotiations to the EU with Ukraine. We are working also on security guarantees to give to the country. I have proposed to establish a dedicated multiyear fund within the European Peace Facility to secure our military support to Ukraine during the years to come. However, we are not a military alliance and the greatest security guarantee we can give Ukraine is to make it a full member of the European family.

The second major issue is the situation in Israel and Palestine after the appalling Hamas’ terrorist attack on 7 October that we have condemned in the strongest possible terms. One month later, a humanitarian tragedy is unfolding in Gaza.

We must demonstrate that the accusation of double standard is false

As I explained also last week to the congress of the Party of European Socialists, although these two conflicts are very different in their causes and actors, they are also interconnected. We are seen indeed by many countries in the so-called Global South as applying double standards regarding international law in Ukraine and in Gaza. By our deeds and words, we must demonstrate that this accusation is false.

We support of course the right of Israel to defend itself in the face of the horrible terrorist attacks it has suffered. But, as President Obama said in an inspiring text, the way in which Israel defends itself matters. It must respect international humanitarian law and try to minimise civilian casualties. Cutting off water, food, electricity and fuel to an entire besieged civilian population is not acceptable.

“A military strategy that ignores human costs for civilians, risks make a future peace between Palestinian and Israelis almost impossible. Yet peace is the only real long-term guarantee for the security of Israel.”

According to the health authorities in Gaza there are already more than eleven thousand deadly victims, about half of them are children. A military strategy that ignores human costs for civilians is not going to work because it risks to make a future peace between Palestinian and Israelis almost impossible. Yet peace is the only real long-term guarantee for the security of Israel.

Avoid a spillover in the region

During the coming days, we must avoid a spillover of the conflict in the region and achieve an immediate de-escalation. We need to reach humanitarian pauses, cease-fire, truces… the name does not matter, what matters is to limit the suffering of civilian populations and make it possible for the Israeli hostages to be released.

It is necessary to ensure that a regular flow of humanitarian aid enters each day in Gaza in needed quantities, including fuel. Many trucks are waiting at the border and there is no lack of money. What is still needed, are secure corridors to bring this aid to all people in need and to evacuate wounded and sick persons as well as foreign nationals. We need more terrestrial accesses to Gaza and we are also studying the Cyprian proposal to open a naval corridor to the enclave. The International Red Cross must also gain access to the hostages held by Hamas, which Hamas has the imperative to free.

“What is currently happening in Gaza is the consequence of a 30 years long political and moral failure of the international community.”

What is currently happening in Gaza is the consequence of a political and moral failure of the international community. 30 years after the Oslo agreements, it has not done what it should have to make the two-state solution a reality. Today the number of Israeli settlers in the occupied Palestinian territories is almost three times bigger than 30 years ago and this territory has been divided into an archipelago of unconnected areas, making it much more difficult to implement the two-state solution requested by the international community for 76 years. We must defend with equal emphasis the rights of the Palestinians and of the Israelis to their freedom, security and dignity.

The three “yes” and the three “no”

Once the humanitarian truces have been consolidated, which is not the case for the moment, we will have to move from aid to political action. And the immediate political transition will have to be based on following principles that we discussed in our Foreign Affairs Council. I would sum it up in three "yes" and three "no".

First, no to any forced displacement of the Palestinian people out of Gaza to other countries.

Second, the territory of Gaza cannot be reduced and there should be no permanent reoccupation of Gaza by Israeli Defense Forces, nor a return of Hamas to Gaza.

Third, Gaza cannot be dissociated from the rest of the Palestinian issue: the solution for Gaza has to be framed within the solution to the Palestinian problem as a whole.

And the three "yes" are about the actors to engage in a solution.

First, a Palestinian Authority should rule Gaza, whose nature, role and legitimacy has to be defined by the UN Security Council.

But this authority will for sure need to be supported.

And this is the second yes to a stronger involvement of the Arab countries. Currently, the Arab states do not want to talk about the "day after", because they are focused on the tragedy that is unfolding today. But there will be no solution without a strong commitment from them, and not only a financial one. It not only about physical reconstruction but about contributing politically to Palestinian state-building.

The third yes is a greater commitment from the EU in the region.

“For the EU, the issue is not only to help rebuild Gaza, which we have done already several times, but to help build a full sovereign Palestinian state, capable of restoring the dignity of the Palestinians and of making peace with Israel.”

For us also, the issue is not only to help rebuild Gaza, which we have done already several times, but to help build a full sovereign Palestinian state, capable of restoring the dignity of the Palestinians and of making peace with Israel.

This has to be our goal and our commitment. Otherwise, we risk staying in a spiral of violence and our security could be more and more threatened: this conflict has the potential to create serious instability in the entire world. We Europeans, out of self-interest, but also out of our moral and political responsibility, have to commit ourselves much more to achieve peace between Israel and Palestine. A significant part of the Union's future global role, and in particular of our relations with the countries of the so-called Global South, will depend on our commitment to solve this conflict.

“A significant part of the EU's future global role will depend on our commitment to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

In coming days, I will travel to Israel, Palestine, Bahrein, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan to discuss these issues and proposals with many of the main regional actors.

The need for a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Finally, we also discussed with the EU Foreign Ministers the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We need to help protect Armenia from any internal or external destabilization. As a first step, we will strengthen our civilian mission in the country. Negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan must resume and a peace treaty needs to be concluded. We are committed to continue the mediation initiated by EUCO President Michel. We have also sent a clear message to Azerbaijan that any violation of Armenia's territorial integrity would have serious consequences for our relations.

In the EU, we are in the eye of the hurricane, witnessing conflicts in many regions around us. To defend our values and interests and protect the safety of our citizens, we need to think and act principled and strategically.