This year, the atmosphere in Munich was one of particular gravity. With two wars on its doorstep, and many other powder kegs all over the world, everyone was finally aware that Europe is in danger, as I said two years ago when presenting the Strategic Compass. 

On the first day of the conference, we learned about the suspect death of Alexei Navalny in a penal colony in Siberia, who has been slowly murdered there by President Putin. I met his wife and invited her to attend the Foreign Affairs Council last Monday, where we paid tribute to Alexei Navalny and she updated us on the political situation in Russia. 

During my stay in Munich, I exchanged also on the most pressing global and bilateral issues with Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, Gustavo Petro, President of Columbia, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, Subrahmanyam Shankar, Foreign Minister of India, Hakan Fidam, Foreign Minister of Türkyie, and Chris Van Hollen, US Senator. With Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti, I discussed, in separate meetings, how to deescalate the tensions between the two countries, without success unfortunately. 

In different meetings, I discussed the situation in the Middle East with Najib Mikati, Prime Minister of Lebanon, Prince Faisal, Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Sameh Shoukry, Foreign Minister of Egypt, Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC and Espen Eide, Foreign Minister of Norway. We focused on our efforts to put an end to the fighting in Gaza, free the hostages, alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe in the strip, avoid the conflict to spread in the region and go forward to implement effectively the two state solution. 

I also presented my views in a plenary session on the “EU’s next geopolitical agenda”. While our priorities are constantly reshaped by events, four items currently dominate our agenda: the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the war that has flared up again in Gaza, both of which are directly putting the security of the EU at risk. Two more structural issues are also requiring urgent action: improving our relations with the so-called Global South and strengthening our defence and security capabilities.

Supporting Ukraine more and quicker 

Regarding Ukraine, two long years have passed since Russia started waging its war of aggression against Ukraine, acting as an imperialist and colonialist power. Ukraine is facing a long and high-intensity war, where casualties are rising on both sides. We must not allow Russia to be rewarded for its aggression. If Putin prevails, this would send a very dangerous signal globally that powerful countries can change borders unilaterally. 

This war put us in a situation that requires a completely different approach from that of ordinary peace times. We have to shift towards much greater agility, commitment, and focus. If we do not act swiftly enough in coming months, Ukraine risks losing ground. We have to support Ukraine more, and we have to do it quicker, in particular regarding artillery ammunition. They are needed now, not in a few months. The issue is not currently a real lack of ammunition production capacity any longer; rather, it is a shortfall in funding and orders. 

We are witnessing a new kind of war: one that evokes both the trenches of the First World War and the robots of Star Wars. Technology, in particular drones and artificial intelligence are shaping the outcome of this war. We need to find ways to provide Ukraine with the latest technological developments. During my recent visit to Ukraine, I was very impressed by the drone factories I visited. We also have to draw the consequences of this new way of warfare for our self and invest more in defence innovation. 

We have also to provide Ukraine with long-term security commitments. EU member states are already signing corresponding bilateral agreements and we will do the same at EU level. We continue working to create a new dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility in order to guarantee long term military support to the country. However, the most important security commitment the EU can give to Ukraine is EU membership. Last December the European Council opened the way to this and we have to remain fully committed to this process. 

Putting an end to the fighting in Gaza and implementing the two-state solution 

In the Middle East, the stakes are also very high for EU’s security. If we fail to help end the man made humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and finally implement the two-state solution, this conflict risks setting the whole region ablaze. The repercussions for Europe would be profound in many respects: migration, terrorism, internal tensions, energy crisis, interrupted sea routes as we are already witnessing in the Red Sea…

In light of the ongoing major humanitarian catastrophe, putting an end to the fighting in Gaza is obviously the most urgent task. However, the situation in East Jerusalem and the West Bank is also very worrying. The level of violence against Palestinians, already very high before, has escalated dramatically since the 7 October. The West Bank is boiling and if UNRWA has to stop supporting the Palestinian people, we may be approaching a major explosion. In view of implementing the two-state solution, the West Bank and East Jerusalem are in reality the main obstacles. In search for a political solution for the day after we must not look exclusively at Gaza, but to all occupied Palestinian territories. 

Can the EU play a role in bringing peace to the region and finally implement the two-state solution that we have been advocating for more than 30 years? I am convinced we can. It is not only possible, it is also our duty and in our interest. We have already engaged with many important regional actors, notably through the Peace Day initiative launched before the 7 October. However, to be successful, we need to be more united, as we have been in support of Ukraine. On the Middle East, we have seen a greater diversity of approaches, and many member states seem to prefer pursuing their own strategies.

Arab countries are preparing a new peace initiative, and we have recently had a lot of discussion with our Arab partners, including at the Foreign Affairs Council in January and at the MSC. We are awaiting their formal proposal and after that, we should join efforts to effectively implement the two-state solution. Without a clear prospect for the Palestinians of an end of the occupation and the creation of their own state, there will be no peace in the Middle East and no real security for Israel. In the long term, security cannot be ensured only by military means. 

Improving our links with the “Global South”

The third strategic issue currently on our agenda is about our relations with the so-called “Global South” countries. I know that the term "Global South" encompasses very different realities, but it nevertheless raises a real issue. If the current global geopolitical tensions continue to evolve in the direction of "the West against the Rest", Europe’s future risks to be bleak. The era of Western dominance has indeed definitively ended. While this has been theoretically understood, we have not always drawn all practical conclusions from this new reality.

The combination of the war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in Gaza has significantly increased this risk, as we have recently seen in the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Many in the “Global South” accuse us of “double standards”. Russia has managed to take advantage of the situation although its war of aggression against Ukraine is typically an imperialist and colonialist one. We need to push back on this narrative but also to address this issue not only with words: in the coming months, we must make a massive effort to win back the trust of our partners. 

Reinforcing our defence capacities and our defence industry

Last but not least, we need to massively reinforce our capacities in security and defence. We must obviously be prepared in particular for a prolonged period of tensions with Russia, which may be tempted to escalate its political and military provocations against NATO countries in the coming months. It has already been at the core of my work during the last four years: as High Representative, I am not only in charge of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy but also of the Common Security and Defence Policy and since 2019 I have devoted a lot of effort to this second dimension. 

Before the Russian aggression against Ukraine, we launched the Strategic Compass - the new EU security and defence strategy - because I was convinced that “Europe was in danger”. At that time, nobody really noticed or realised the gravity of the situation. Now, European defence is back at the centre of the public debate, and not only at the MSC. Rightly so. 

I have repeatedly explained in recent years that Europe has gone though a long period of silent disarmament, gradually losing military capacity while our defence industry has been shrinking dangerously. We have now started to reverse this trend. For the last ten years our defence budgets have been growing again. And since the start of the Russian war of aggression, we have begun to reboot our defence industry: our capacity to produce artillery ammunitions has grown by 40 %. It is still a long way to go but we are moving in the right direction. 

We must sustain these efforts in cooperation with key partners, and in particular the US. The recent months have reminded us how important NATO remains to our collective defence, but also the need to strengthen its European pillar as our American friends have been asking for. There are uncertainties regarding the future level of US engagement in the European security and we must be prepared for different scenarios. Regardless of the outcome of the American elections, it is clear that we will have to rely more and more on our own forces in the future.

I know how complicated it is to spend more on defence at a time when the economic and social situation is difficult everywhere in Europe. For decades, we have, understandably, preferred butter to cannons. But it we are not able to defend ourselves, we risk losing not only our butter but also freedom and democracy. 

To maximise the effectiveness of our efforts, we need to decisively step up our coordination to avoid unnecessary duplication, fill the gaps in our defence capacities and increase interoperability. We have said it for a long time, now we must finally do it. 

This requires also a stronger and more resilient European defence industry. This is why, as tasked by the European Council, I, as High Representative responsible for our Common Security and Defence Policy and Head of the European Defence Agency, together with the Commission, will present in coming days a new European Defence Industrial Strategy to boost the industrial and technological capacity of our defence industry.

We had an excellent cooperation with Commissioner Breton, in charge of our industrial ecosystem, which includes the defence industry. For the future, a Commissioner for this industrial sector alone could be an option, although strong interdependencies exist with other industrial and technological sectors. 

According to the Treaties, defence policy itself remains however an exclusive competence of the Member States and only EU member states have armies and defence capabilities. Our responsibility at EU level, my responsibility as High Representative in charge of the Common Security and Defence Policy, is not to build ‘one European army’, but to mobilize our national armies in a coordinated way in order to face common challenges more effectively. 

We need to make them work together better, to be more interoperable, to avoid duplications, address shortfalls, and to be able to launch common operations when needed. During my mandate, I launched seven such EU missions with last Monday the last one in order to safeguard freedom of navigation in in the Red Sea. 

The work has only started to strengthen our defence capacities and our defence industry. We must accelerate and focus on working together to make sure the EU and its member states have the means required by our ambition to be a geopolitical player.